Scenario Simulator: Predict market share, revenue, and churn from conjoint surveys

The Scenario Simulator is a special conjoint analysis chart, which is available to all OpinionX users.

Conjoint simulators predict which choices people would make in a hypothetical scenario with two or more offerings. To run a simulator on conjoint analysis survey data, the researcher picks one option from each category in order to create a profile. Once they have two or more profiles, the simulator will calculate the popularity of each profile to identify the percentage of survey respondents that would likely pick each one.

The best way to understand how a conjoint simulator works is to see it in action! Check out the example in the GIF below where I create a scenario with two profiles going head-to-head in my market simulator:

Once you have created the set of profiles for your scenario, the simulator checks each survey respondent's personal preference scores to see which profile they would be more likely to choose.

After checking these scores for each respondent, the simulator aggregates everyone's predicted choices to give a market share estimate for each profile out of a total of 100%.

-- -- --

OpinionX's Scenario Simulator chart runs a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulator on the Hierarchical Bayes Multinomial Logit model that is used to calculate utility scores.

This HB-MNL-HMC Simulator (yes, quite a crazy acronym) that OpinionX uses follows the best-practice mathematical approach to running market share simulators today.

-- -- --

OpinionX's Scenario Simulator includes three different simulation approaches in one simple chart, which is available on the results dashboard of every Conjoint Rank survey.

All three of these approaches are fully automated; you can run them without ever touching any formulas, spreadsheets, raw data, or technical functionality. Simply choose which options you want on each profile using the dropdown buttons and OpinionX will handle the calculations for you.

The Market Share Simulator is the most common type of conjoint simulator. It shows the percentage of your survey respondents who would pick each profile.

The Revenue Simulator combines market share percentage with price to show how much revenue each profile would generate, based on the assumption of 1000 target customers making a decision between the available profiles in your scenario.

When a conjoint survey includes a 'none of the above' rejection button, then a Churn Simulator includes an opt-out group for respondents who would likely not pick any of the profiles in your simulator's hypothetical scenario.

-- -- --

OpinionX pricing plans include prepaid consulting hours so that we can help you with survey setup, distribution, or analysis. Most OpinionX customers are not quantitative research experts, so we're here to help you succeed in your project -- regardless of your background or skillset.